Aguascalientes Opina – December 16, 2024

By Aníbal Salazar

The financial divorce Mexico faces with foreign investors for the fourth consecutive month is a worrisome sign for the country’s economic outlook. November ended with a capital outflow of $495 million from the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), bringing the total withdrawn in 2024 to $4.699 billion. In a context of global volatility and political tension, this figure is not only a concern for financial markets but also a wake-up call regarding the country’s economic strategies.

The reasons behind this exodus are complex and multifaceted. Key factors include the unpredictable behavior of the exchange rate and the shadow of uncertainty cast by the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. The threats of new trade wars and tariffs have also contributed to this tense climate, leaving international investors in a state of constant vigilance. The 13.2% drop in the S&P/BMV IPC index so far this year is clear evidence that confidence in the Mexican market has waned, leaving more than one investor “biting their calculators” in search of solutions.

In contrast to this discouraging scenario, the state of Aguascalientes appears to be swimming against the tide. The local government, led by Tere Jiménez, has proudly announced the completion of 27 investment projects worth more than 17.5 billion pesos in 2024. Companies like Bosch, Edgewell, Minth, and Continental have decided to establish operations in the state, consolidating Aguascalientes as an isolated success amid a grim national outlook. This local achievement stands out not only for its scale but also for the confidence it inspires among foreign investors during uncertain times.

However, the million-dollar question remains: How sustainable is this investment attraction model? As 2025 looms with the storm clouds of a “Trumpist future,” the local policies of Aguascalientes will be put to the test. Who among the governor’s key players will venture beyond borders to attract and secure new investments in an increasingly competitive and potentially hostile global environment? The task is not an easy one, but Aguascalientes seems determined to build a success narrative that contrasts with national challenges.

Meanwhile, the Mexican economy faces a dual challenge: regaining the trust of foreign investors and diversifying its revenue sources to avoid exclusive dependence on trade relations with the United States. In a world where investment decisions are increasingly influenced by politics and geopolitics, internal stability and economic innovation will be critical to reversing this capital flight.

In conclusion, 2024 has been a year of contrasts for Mexico: a shaky financial market against local success stories like that of Aguascalientes. While the national outlook is far from optimistic, successful local strategies could serve as a beacon of hope in an uncertain horizon. But the question persists: Will it be enough?

Time will tell… and so will your opinion.